In a year where almost any democrat (and most independents) will tell you they just want someone, anyone, to get Trump out of office, Democrats are putting forth historically unelectable candidates. The Washington Post has a great article on that here:
So I thought I would rank my the top 10 candidates who have qualified for all debates according to electability. Those candidates are generally in 3 tiers:
Top tier: Biden/Warren/Sanders
Second tier: Buttigeg, Harris
Third tier: Yang, O’Rourke, Booker, Castro, Klobuchar
The real order, if we went off electability would be:
Top tier: Klobuchar
Second tier: Booker, Castro, O’Rourke, Biden, Harris
Third tier: Warren, Sanders, Yang, Buttigeg
Now, before all you Warren fans rip me, I love her. She’s my favorite candidate, but of the candidates with an actual shot at the nomination, she’s the least likely to win. Even Sanders, an avowed socialist, is better positioned. That doesn’t mean she CAN’T win, but is this really the election you want to find out? Here’s a great article from Politico on the challenges Warren faces. It basically comes down to the fact that she appeals to highly educated females. Not a great recipe for success.
Which brings me to Sanders. I mean, I don’t think anyone has brought up some of his sordid past because they didn’t need to tear him down to beat him and risk pissing off his loyal base. But seriously, the guy’s obsession with socialism is not just liking social security and thinking Norway is a model country. I love that he’s defending the word and weakening it for republicans, who constantly overuse it, but I’m not sure how he’s going to defend his past praise for Russia and Fidel Castro among other dictators. I also, as an aside, don’t think he’d be an effective president, but I love his singular focus on inequality.
As long as I’m on the top 3 in the polls, I might as well hit Biden. I mean, he’s establishment, he can run a campaign, he has broad support across the democratic coalition. But he’s risky. This Hunter Biden thing weakens him, as much as I hate to say it. It may well be a trump fantasy, but it’s effective because it feels right. It sticks, and polls show that. Along with Bidens’ gaffes (and his age) I think he’s the most likely to be dragged down to Trump’s level on perception of being a sleazy politician.
So why Klobuchar?
She’s known for moderate politics to attract swing voters and never Trumpers. But beyond that she’s highly likable and attractive, characteristics that go surprisingly far in elections. And the demographics of her followers are highly favorable for the general election, performing well in the competitive demographics and swing states.
Yang is not a serious candidate. The whole universal basic income is just too ahead of its time even if you agree with it. The country isn’t ready for that.
I love Buttigeg. But again, are we really ready to trust this election to a mayor with no experience in national politics? And is this country ready to elect a gay man? Maybe, but again it’s a risk.
The only other candidate that I think could potentially be a serious contender is Harris, my home state Senator. But my goodness she is unlikable. I am not the best judge, I’ve never liked her. She’s just so ambitious that it comes across as not quite genuine, and that’s before you consider her affair with a 30-years-her-senior politician who has admitted he boosted her career.
So in the most important election of my lifetime, not just so far, but possible ever, we’re left with 10 candidates, almost all with baggage (including some for Klobuchar is who is notoriously hard on her staff). But of ALL the candidates, she is the only one who hasn’t endorsed far left positions in this campaign, isn’t a political newcomer, and doesn’t have potential corruption baggage.
I realize she doesn’t set your pants on fire as a liberal, but ask yourself, do you really want to beat Trump?